K. D. Clewley Capital Management

August 10, 2011 

Economic and Investment Outlook

In early August 2011, our proprietary leading economic indicators forecast a likely new recession for the first time since November 2007.  As a result, we were able to move our accounts out of stocks and avoid an -8% decline in the S&P 500 from that point through August 10, 2011.

Over the next few months, we expect to see more disappointing economic data from the U.S., Europe and China.     

Discussion

A recession began in the U.S. in December 2007.  Our economic indicators identified the recession before then, in November 2007.  As a result, we were able to move our client portfolios out of stocks and avoid a -36% decline in the S&P 500 from that point through July 2009.

In July 2009, we identified the end of the recession and moved back into stocks.  We remained in stocks for most of the time until early August 2011, so our portfolios benefitted from a 28% gain in the S&P 500 from July 2009 through early August 2011.  

Strategy

In the past, recessions have often been accompanied by a 30-50% decline in stock prices.  Declines of this magnitude can have a major effect on portfolios.  So, we focus closely on the economy and move client accounts out of stocks and into safer bond funds during recessions.  As a result, we have been able to avoid these recessionary declines while remaining in stocks during bull markets.  Our investment strategy differs significantly from the prevailing buy and hold style on Wall Street. 

K. D. Clewley Capital Management doesn't take custody of any client funds or securities, unlike many investment firms.  Accounts are held in the client's name at a major third party institution providing clients with complete control over their funds.

For more information on our investment management services, please email or call Kevin Clewley at 858-775-7592.  Our firm manages $22 million in assets for clients in the U.S. and Europe. 

Kevin Clewley

Registered Financial Advisor

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.  Further information is available in our disclosure brochure ADV part 2. 

What We Do:

We manage investment accounts for individuals, families, businesses and trusts.  Minimum initial account size is $100,000.

Client Assets Under Management: $22 Million

Contact Us:

Kevin Clewley

Registered Investment Advisor

Wharton MBA 1987

Babson College BS Finance 1980

Phone: 858-775-7592

or email